OF PROBABILITIES AND POSSIBILITIES : A REJOINDER

by Arturo De La Paz

Up to now a lot of fans are not able to move on with the results of the Binibining Pilipinas 2012 Beauty Pageant. For them, there is something unimaginable that occurred when three of the finalists who made it to the winners' circle were not pageant favorites and that two of them did not do well in the question and answer portion. The answer of one of the winners was even labeled "pageant patty." What happened? Why is it that Miss Patricia Lae Ejercitado and Mary Jean Lastimosa were not included in the circle of winners? This writer does not want to sound and feel like a sour-graping fan but just to finally put closure on this topic that keeps on bewildering fans. Let us dissect the criteria of the slection and let us base it on probablities and possible outcomes.

Beauty of Face is 40 %. As to the beauty of face, both faces present the exotic Filipina features that are hits in the international pageant arena. Ejercitado had the expression and presentation of the beautiful brown Filipina. On the other hand, MJ is just the right mixture of Arab and Filipino genes. I highly rate them in this department.

I gave Patricia a score of 38 and MJ a score of 34.

As to beauty of body, these two girls have bodies to die for. Ejercitado has a whistle bait figure of 34-23-35. On the other hand, Lastimosa has an hour-glass figure of 34-22-34. So if I have to rate this two, Lastimosa would have a perfect score 30 and Ejercitado of 29.

Super vavavoom bodies

The personality department comprises 20% and is said to be judged during the evening gown competition. These two ladies are very personable and they are the most well-liked candidates. They are fans' favorites and thus I gave them perfect scores of 20.

Now people think that this criterion of Intelligence (10%) is the decisive factor. I believe this is not the case. However, it becomes only decisive if the scores are so close to each other and that the scores in this department will break ties or will eventually overhaul the small lead of presumed front-running candidates. If I were to rate Patricia's answer and apply the dictum of universality, she will just be given a passing score of 7.5. But in most cases, we have to admit, her answer has a "shock" value - culture and impact wise and if I were to rate her on this, I will give her a score of 9.9 which is an almost perfect score. As to MJ's answer, I find it very evasive. It talks about generalities and did not focus on the intent of the question. One may get overwhelmed with the scope of the question but a discerning person can easily limit its scale and make a more direct to the point answer. A school teacher will probably give her a score of 6.5 here.

The bone of contention here is that did these two girls showed adequate edge over the winning candidates to possibly be in the winners' circle? Let me illustrate using my rating for these girls. I will also include Angelee Claudette De Los Reyes (26) to demonstrate my points.

My personal scores for the candidates in question

So if we base our discussion on my rating for the candidates for illustration, Candidates 7, 29 and 9 will enter the Top 5. Candidate Number 7 will be the Binibining Pilipinas Tourism, Candidate Number 29 will be First Runner-Up and Candidate Number 9 will be Second Runner-up. Note that Candidate Number 29 was not able to answer the question and a failing grade score of 5 is given. I do not know if in the Binibini rules, there is a limit to the low scores. In this case for the Question and Answer Portion, the lowest score to be given is 5. So I gave 5 for candidate number 29 here. Or even she is given a "O" score here for faltering in the final stretch, she will still be a second runner-up in my scoring.

Now going further with our explanation, granting that the systematic error in the judging is (+/-) 4. Please don't ask me how I was able to derive this systematic error. It will take another article to write about getting into this topic. We will try to deduct 4 to the candidates that got the first 3 high scores in my list and the candidates with the lowest 4 scores in my list. Let us see how the possible winners will look like.

So in this scenario, Candidate 7 is still Bb. Pilipinas Tourism, Candidate 29 is First Runner-Up and Candidate Number 13 is second runner-up. In this situation, Candidate 9 will be eased out from the winner's circle. Now granted again that Candidate Number 7's answer will just get a passing score and the scores of Candidates 13 and 26 were given correction factors.

Why the correction factors? Well, pageant pundits say that Candidate 26 should get the highest score for personality since she was adjudged as the Best in Evening Gown and this is where the scores came in. On the other hand, Candidate 13 they said is very personable so we have to increase her scores too. Let us see the new configuration.

In this scenario again, we still have the same results as above. But if we use the corrective factor, and the margin of error, the eventual winner for the Binibining Pilipinas Tourism would be Candidate Number 26 and the first runner-up is Candidate Number 13 and second runner-up would be Candidate Number 7.

Things like these happen because the pageant does not explain their rating system to the pageant followers. These followers are thinking individuals too and that they will not just accept things as they are. Add to this is the growing patronage system where the winner of the top plum is coming from one camp only. This pageant edition alone showed three candidates going into the Magic circle from this camp.

It is very clear therefore that for these girls, it is anybody's ballgame. There are 12 judges and they may have their own personal choices. The illustration is based on my personal choices. Therefore, given that there are 12 judges, the margin of error will play a great role in the choices of the winners. The case in point here is that "Beauty is in the eyes of the beholder." Each judge do not see the candidate in the same light. They may argue about their choices but in the end, they make the choices.

Here are some of of the suggestions I can advance and if organizers are out there and can make a note or two:

1.) Transparent rating system - The criteria should be announced so that the viewers will have at a basis of how the winners are selected. If this had been announced I am sure the viewers will have a mental note how the scores will come out. It is therefore important that in this highly technical world, the Binibini is still doing the manual scoring and computer input and then computation mode. The judges' rating should be computerized and flashed onscreen. Develop also a mechanism that will not make the judges score very low or very high for certain candidates. In the Miss Universe Beauty Pageant, there used to be a rule that the highest score and lowest score given to a candidate is eliminated in the computation. It will give a level playing field for all candidates.

2.) Since the organization is the franchise holder for sending the Philippine representative to the Miss Universe, then it would be appropriate that they follow the selection system of the Miss Universe Contest. They have a preliminary competition to select the Top 15 and 1 girl to join the selected candidates chosen by the voting public. Then the candidates parade and compete in their swimsuits. The Top 10 advances to the evening/long gown competition. Then the Top 5 advances to the Question and Answer portion where the BEST OF THE BESTS gets the plum prize.

3.) I don't believe in prototype candidates for a particular contest. No prototyping please. But what I believe is that we live in an ever-changing world where particular tastes can be changed or even molded through the years. It is practically hypocrisy to say that the three titles the organization is awarding have equal rankings. We all know that the Miss Universe Philippines title is the most coveted because the winner participates in the pageant of all pageants, the Miss Universe contest. They only say that these titles have equal ranks because it gives them a leeway to discuss the prototype issue and jumble the rankings of the Top 3 girls. As a further note, the present selection is prone to favoritism, manipulation and alteration.

4.) The candidates should compete using the gown of their own choices. In this case, the creativity and the ingenuity of the Filipino designer will be highlighted and underscored. The Filipino, time and again had shown that his creative designs are world class. This apparent snub to them should stop and let the word Pilipinas ring a bell true to form.

5.) If the suggestion above will be taken into consideration, it would be nice to see another contest after the pageant among fashion designers. A contest similar to Project Runway can be done and it would be entitled "DRESS YOUR QUEEN CONTEST." It will be a competition for creating the gown and the national costume for our representatives. Then our designers will have something to look forward to.

 

Note: Mr. Arturo de la Paz sent this article to our mail as part of his contribution to the continuing and never-ending debate on the results of the recently concluded Binibining Pilipinas 2012 beauty pageant. The views and opinions expressed in this article are purely his. As for other readers, we would also appreciate your contributing articles as long as it fits the editorial intent of our blog.

Photo Credits: Paul Cortes, RL Lacanienta, BPCI

THE PUZZLE CONTINUES

by Arden D. Bautista

The results of the Binibining Pilipinas 2012 baffled me until now. I believe there were only two candidates that were clearly deserving of the Top Award. I also stand by my thesis in my previous write-up that the one that really topped the pageant was candidate Number 8. She was really was shining through that night. She should have been the Miss PAL’s Sunniest Personality. But I agree with my editor that due to the requirements of the two international pageants, the winners in the Top 2 contest were interchanged so as to make the better chances of the organization to win in them.

Let me discuss therefore why are these candidates IN and OUT? 

1.)  Katrina Dimaranan (13) – I must give the pageant fans the benefit of the doubt. They like her. There are two probable reasons why this girl was chosen to win. First, she has that exotic appeal. She had this ersatz and sophistication that rub on the people’s senses. Second, Katrina is a good conversationalist. She can talk and she can expound her views on any questions thrown at her.

Then why do I say she must be OUT? Well, for all intents and purposes, the face of Katrina is not the kind of face that would launch a thousand ships in the Miss Tourism Queen International. Second, her movements are too exaggerated and they do not show finesse. And thirdly, her answer is so pageant patty and you could see that she tried to go around the bush just impress to the judges about this.

2.)  Elaine Kay Moll (15) -Why is she in? The girl has height and because of this she commands attention. She has a decent face and on the final night she did a remarkable appearance in the evening gown competition.

Then why do I say she is supposed to be OUT? Well, Elaine has a bland personality. She walks the runway with seeming disinterest. And because of her height and athleticism, her movements are quite mannish. And lastly she choked and crumbled on the final answer although she came out of a decent thought for the question.

3.) Analie Forbes (29) – I have no doubts that she should be in the Top 5. Our surveys showed it. She is beautiful. She is charming and talented. However, by standards of decency, dignity and integrity as one contestant puts in her answer during the question and answer portion, she should be out for greatly flubbing during the Question and Answer portion. The organization’s gesture of repeating the question for her during the pageant night and making a more sanitized presentation on TV showed favoritism. And this is the real reason why she is IN despite obviously being OUT.

WHO SHOULD BE IN BUT WENT OUT:

1.) Angelee De Los Reyes (26) – She is the effusive candidate. It is no wonder because she is a Nursing Instructor and thus can elaborate on any topic that is asked of her. She had the body. She had the complete qualities that should catapult her to the Top 5. The question is, why was she dumped in favor of Candidate Number 29 when during the Question and Answer portion, she was clearly 5 notches higher.

2.) MJ Lastimosa (9) –She is the brightest star that night. She was radiant and she has the sensuality that other candidates can equal. My big question is, did she do anything wrong to merit a snub in the winner’s circle? Did she fall out of grace from the organizers? She may not have given the best answer to the question but again my standard of comparison is Candidate Number 29 who fumbled and mumbled a collection of memorized answers to the question given her.

3.)  Patricia Lae Ejercitado (7) – there seems to be nothing going wrong with Candidate Number 7. She was exemplary in the swimsuit segment. Her twist and turn during the swimsuit round were clearly applauded. Her lady demeanor was very much appreciated. Where could have she gone wrong? Height? Or could it be her answer to the Question and answer portion? She delivered an impassioned answer that the greatest challenge that she faced is she almost lost faith in God. Answers like this may cause division among the judges as it is not only controversial but the height of maturity in terms of religious freedom and respect exceedingly differ among people. Many however appreciated her answer and yet she still came out wanting.

4.)   Sherilyn Gonzales (30) was all beauty and poise during the final night. She aced her interview in a very professional manner. How come she did not get into the Top 5 when we see uninspired answers coming from candidates 15 and 29?

The general comments about the candidates are that Candidates Number 30, 7, 26, 13, 18, 8 aced their interviews and yet this seemed not to have an impact on the final choices. These should be the candidates that should be considered for the Top 5. The only thing that I can think of is that the Top 12 are only there for a show. I feel that there is already a pre-determined list of winners and that they are the ones that were only considered for judging and deliberations. In this case, the pageant mechanics should follow the mechanics of the Miss Universe to avoid such disparity. A Top 15 is called and they parade in swimsuit and the lowest 5 is eliminated. The Top 10 goes to the evening gown competition and another 5 is eliminated and the remaining Top 5 is left to answer the questions. It would leave little space for disgust. It would also leave a little space for bickering among pageant fans.

Photos courtesy by: Paul Cortes

KNOW YOUR BB. PILIPINAS 2012 CANDIDATES (#7 to #12)

Candidate no. 7 is Patricia Lae Santos Ejercitado. Pat as she is called by her family and friends is 23 years old, stands at 5 feet and 7 ½ inches tall. Her vital stats are 34-22 ¾-34, she lives in Cainta, Rizal with her family. Her mother who hails from Sta. Barbara, Pangasinan married at a young age to her father who hails from Sta. Magdalena, Sorsogon in Bicol region. Pat graduated with a degree in Interior Design at the University of Sto. Tomas and has passed the interior design licensure exam last year and she’s now a certified Licensed Interior Designer. Aside from being a licensed interior designer, she is also into painting which she considers herself as one who falls in love with canvasses. Although stereotypically artists are considered introvert, she is more of a fun loving and outgoing little Michelangelo. She enjoy going out of town, seeing the beaches and the different parts of the Philippines from which she get her inspiration for her artworks. Before joining the Bb. Pilipinas in 2010 she was a typical boyish girl and was having a hard time walking in high heels, maintaining her balance and at the same time keeping her posture as poised as it should be. But then she realize it was fun and she is now back enjoying the time of her life.

Given the second chance to prove herself at this year’s Bb. Pilipinas and pursue her childhood dream of becoming a beauty queen, she has prepared for this year’s competition with more confidence and determination to win one of the titles. She think that what makes her standout in this competition is her natural skin color which she take good care of as it is one of her best assets, her exotic look and her winning spirit. God, family, friends and those people who believe in her are her sources of inspiration to win in this competition.

To all her supporters, she want to thank all of you for believing in her and inspiring her to work even harder for this years Bb. Pilipinas. She appreciate all the effort of giving her suggestions and words of encouragement. She said, "Let's all pray and hope that GOD will reward us the coveted crown. Let us enjoy this celebration of Filipina beauty and not lose its essence by maintaining peace and friendship in supporting your own bets. God bless us all."

Photo credits: CriticalBeauty.com ; Information source: Beauty Mania website. Thanks! :)

*****

Candidate no. 8 is Nicole Maturan Schmitz. Nicole was born in Sydney, New South Wales on June 28, 1988 to German retired chef Udo Schmitz and Filipina salesperson Leilani Maturan. Now 23, Nicole first competed for Bb. Pilipinas in 2007 and was fortunate enough to make it as a top ten finalist. She also joined several pageants in Cebu (where her mother originally came from) and Australia, and has a string of beauty titles to her name: Miss Mandaue 2006, Miss Teen Philippines 1st runner-up 2006 and Miss Philippines Australia 2008.

Nicole graduated with two degrees to her name – Psychology and Law. She wants to be a media lawyer in the future even as she also hopes to be able to work as a clinical psychologist for children.

It took the 5' 7 3/4" Nicole five years to take a second crack at the coveted Bb. Pilipinas crown. Having learned her lessons from her first try, Nicole, whose tale-of-the-tape reads 34-23-34, has come back prepared to face the challenge to be crowned as the next Bb. Pilipinas queen.

Photo credits: CriticalBeauty.com ; Information source: Malaya.com.ph

*****

Candidate no. 9 is Mary Jean Lastimosa. MJ as she is called by her family and friends is 24 years old and from Davao City. She stands at 5 feet and 8 inches tall, a graduate of the University of Mindanao with a degree in Computer Engineering. MJ has an Arab/ Filipino blood. Her family were leaving abroad except her sister. MJ has been joining beauty pageants since her teen years and has won some of them. Here are the list of pageants she has joined, Mutya ng Tulunan 2003, Lakambini ng University of Mindanao 2004, Mutya ng North Cotabato 2004, 1st runner up, Davao's Loveliest 2005, 1st runner up, Mutya ng University of Mindanao 2006, Miss Regional PRISAA 2007, Miss National PRISAA 2007, 2nd runner up, Mutya ng Davao 2008, Reyna ng Aliwan 2008, BB. Pilipinas 2011, 2nd runner up.

MJ's hobbies/talent are internet surfing, working out, reading and dance sports.

Photo credits: Bb. Pilipinas Charities, Inc., CriticalBeauty.com and Pilipinas Beauties. Thanks! :)

*****

Candidate no. 10 is Jillean Camille Manibog Orbina. Jill as she is fondly called by her family and friends is 20 years old and an AB Mass Communications student at Philippine Women's University. She stands at 5 feet and 8 inches tall, representing the province of Isabela. She was 2nd runner-up at Mutya ng Taguig 2011.

Jill's father is half Mexican and her mom has a Japanese blood. She's been living independently and had some experiences on runway projects and photo shoots. Jill loves to sing which is evident at the Talent Competition where she sang "Torete".

Photo credits: Bb. Pilipinas Charities, Inc. and CriticalBeauty.com. Thanks! :)

*****

Candidate no. 11 is Marie Virginia Cecile Molo Peter. Marie as she is called by her friends and family is 21 years old and stands at 5 feet and 8 1/2 inches tall. Marie is of Filipino, Norwegian and German descent. Her mother is pure Filipina originally from Tangalan, Aklan. Whereas her father is half Norwegian and half German. She was born in Kalibo, Aklan where she was enrolled in Aklan Learning Center for Kindergarten and Prep. School before they moved to Norway at the age of 7.

She have lived in Fredrikstad, Norway for 14 years before she moved to Munich, Germany in 2010 for a one year study. And now back in the Philippines competing for one of the Bb. Pilipinas 2012 crowns. She is representing the province of Aklan and asking for the support of her fellow Aklanons.

Photo credits: CriticalBeauty.com. Thanks! :)

*****

Candidate no. 12 is Ayelee Marie Bajal Dasalla. Ayelee is a 21 years old registered nurse and was born on December 25, 1990 in Mariveles, Bataan. She graduated at St. Paul College in Manila with a degree in Nursing. Ayelee stands at 5 feet and 8 1/2 inches tall with a vital stats of 34-23-35. Ayelee is the first runner-up at Miss Bataan 2011.

Photo credits: BPCI and CriticalBeauty.com. Thanks! :)