Saturday, April 28, 2012

OF PROBABILITIES AND POSSIBILITIES : A REJOINDER

by Arturo De La Paz

Up to now a lot of fans are not able to move on with the results of the Binibining Pilipinas 2012 Beauty Pageant. For them, there is something unimaginable that occurred when three of the finalists who made it to the winners' circle were not pageant favorites and that two of them did not do well in the question and answer portion. The answer of one of the winners was even labeled "pageant patty." What happened? Why is it that Miss Patricia Lae Ejercitado and Mary Jean Lastimosa were not included in the circle of winners? This writer does not want to sound and feel like a sour-graping fan but just to finally put closure on this topic that keeps on bewildering fans. Let us dissect the criteria of the slection and let us base it on probablities and possible outcomes.

Beauty of Face is 40 %. As to the beauty of face, both faces present the exotic Filipina features that are hits in the international pageant arena. Ejercitado had the expression and presentation of the beautiful brown Filipina. On the other hand, MJ is just the right mixture of Arab and Filipino genes. I highly rate them in this department.






I gave Patricia a score of 38 and MJ a score of 34.

As to beauty of body, these two girls have bodies to die for. Ejercitado has a whistle bait figure of 34-23-35. On the other hand, Lastimosa has an hour-glass figure of 34-22-34. So if I have to rate this two, Lastimosa would have a perfect score 30 and Ejercitado of 29.
Super vavavoom bodies

The personality department comprises 20% and is said to be judged during the evening gown competition. These two ladies are very personable and they are the most well-liked candidates. They are fans' favorites and thus I gave them perfect scores of 20.


Now people think that this criterion of Intelligence (10%) is the decisive factor. I believe this is not the case. However, it becomes only decisive if the scores are so close to each other and that the scores in this department will break ties or will eventually overhaul the small lead of presumed front-running candidates. If I were to rate Patricia's answer and apply the dictum of universality, she will just be given a passing score of 7.5. But in most cases, we have to admit, her answer has a "shock" value - culture and impact wise and if I were to rate her on this, I will give her a score of 9.9 which is an almost perfect score. As to MJ's answer, I find it very evasive. It talks about generalities and did not focus on the intent of the question. One may get overwhelmed with the scope of the question but a discerning person can easily limit its scale and make a more direct to the point answer. A school teacher will probably give her a score of 6.5 here.

The bone of contention here is that did these two girls showed adequate edge over the winning candidates to possibly be in the winners' circle? Let me illustrate using my rating for these girls. I will also include Angelee Claudette De Los Reyes (26) to demonstrate my points.
My personal scores for the candidates in question

So if we base our discussion on my rating for the candidates for illustration, Candidates 7, 29 and 9 will enter the Top 5. Candidate Number 7 will be the Binibining Pilipinas Tourism, Candidate Number 29 will be First Runner-Up and Candidate Number 9 will be Second Runner-up. Note that Candidate Number 29 was not able to answer the question and a failing grade score of 5 is given. I do not know if in the Binibini rules, there is a limit to the low scores. In this case for the Question and Answer Portion, the lowest score to be given is 5. So I gave 5 for candidate number 29 here. Or even she is given a "O" score here for faltering in the final stretch, she will still be a second runner-up in my scoring.

Now going further with our explanation, granting that the systematic error in the judging is (+/-) 4. Please don't ask me how I was able to derive this systematic error. It will take another article to write about getting into this topic. We will try to deduct 4 to the candidates that got the first 3 high scores in my list and the candidates with the lowest 4 scores in my list. Let us see how the possible winners will look like.

So in this scenario, Candidate 7 is still Bb. Pilipinas Tourism, Candidate 29 is First Runner-Up and Candidate Number 13 is second runner-up. In this situation, Candidate 9 will be eased out from the winner's circle. Now granted again that Candidate Number 7's answer will just get a passing score and the scores of Candidates 13 and 26 were given correction factors.

Why the correction factors? Well, pageant pundits say that Candidate 26 should get the highest score for personality since she was adjudged as the Best in Evening Gown and this is where the scores came in. On the other hand, Candidate 13 they said is very personable so we have to increase her scores too. Let us see the new configuration.


In this scenario again, we still have the same results as above. But if we use the corrective factor, and the margin of error, the eventual winner for the Binibining Pilipinas Tourism would be Candidate Number 26 and the first runner-up is Candidate Number 13 and second runner-up would be Candidate Number 7.

Things like these happen because the pageant does not explain their rating system to the pageant followers. These followers are thinking individuals too and that they will not just accept things as they are. Add to this is the growing patronage system where the winner of the top plum is coming from one camp only. This pageant edition alone showed three candidates going into the Magic circle from this camp.

It is very clear therefore that for these girls, it is anybody's ballgame. There are 12 judges and they may have their own personal choices. The illustration is based on my personal choices. Therefore, given that there are 12 judges, the margin of error will play a great role in the choices of the winners. The case in point here is that "Beauty is in the eyes of the beholder." Each judge do not see the candidate in the same light. They may argue about their choices but in the end, they make the choices.


Here are some of of the suggestions I can advance and if organizers are out there and can make a note or two:

1.) Transparent rating system - The criteria should be announced so that the viewers will have at a basis of how the winners are selected. If this had been announced I am sure the viewers will have a mental note how the scores will come out. It is therefore important that in this highly technical world, the Binibini is still doing the manual scoring and computer input and then computation mode. The judges' rating should be computerized and flashed onscreen. Develop also a mechanism that will not make the judges score very low or very high for certain candidates. In the Miss Universe Beauty Pageant, there used to be a rule that the highest score and lowest score given to a candidate is eliminated in the computation. It will give a level playing field for all candidates.
2.) Since the organization is the franchise holder for sending the Philippine representative to the Miss Universe, then it would be appropriate that they follow the selection system of the Miss Universe Contest. They have a preliminary competition to select the Top 15 and 1 girl to join the selected candidates chosen by the voting public. Then the candidates parade and compete in their swimsuits. The Top 10 advances to the evening/long gown competition. Then the Top 5 advances to the Question and Answer portion where the BEST OF THE BESTS gets the plum prize.
3.) I don't believe in prototype candidates for a particular contest. No prototyping please. But what I believe is that we live in an ever-changing world where particular tastes can be changed or even molded through the years. It is practically hypocrisy to say that the three titles the organization is awarding have equal rankings. We all know that the Miss Universe Philippines title is the most coveted because the winner participates in the pageant of all pageants, the Miss Universe contest. They only say that these titles have equal ranks because it gives them a leeway to discuss the prototype issue and jumble the rankings of the Top 3 girls. As a further note, the present selection is prone to favoritism, manipulation and alteration.
4.) The candidates should compete using the gown of their own choices. In this case, the creativity and the ingenuity of the Filipino designer will be highlighted and underscored. The Filipino, time and again had shown that his creative designs are world class. This apparent snub to them should stop and let the word Pilipinas ring a bell true to form.
5.) If the suggestion above will be taken into consideration, it would be nice to see another contest after the pageant among fashion designers. A contest similar to Project Runway can be done and it would be entitled "DRESS YOUR QUEEN CONTEST." It will be a competition for creating the gown and the national costume for our representatives. Then our designers will have something to look forward to.

 



Note: Mr. Arturo de la Paz sent this article to our mail as part of his contribution to the continuing and never-ending debate on the results of the recently concluded Binibining Pilipinas 2012 beauty pageant. The views and opinions expressed in this article are purely his. As for other readers, we would also appreciate your contributing articles as long as it fits the editorial intent of our blog.



Photo Credits: Paul Cortes, RL Lacanienta, BPCI

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